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Value of biologic therapy: a forecasting model in three disease areas
L Clark Paramore1, Craig A Hunter, Bryan R Luce
1Center for Health Economics, Epidemiology & Science Policy, United BioSource Corporation, Lexington, MA 02420, USA. clark.paramore@unitedbiosource.com
Current Medical Research and Opinion
|November 10, 2009
Summary
Biologic therapies offer substantial return on investment (ROI) for asthma, diabetes, and colorectal cancer. Forecasts show positive ROI for these innovative treatments, highlighting societal benefits.
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Pharmacoeconomics
- Biotechnology
Background:
- Biologic therapies represent significant advancements in treating chronic diseases.
- Forecasting the economic impact of these therapies is crucial for resource allocation.
- Asthma, diabetes, and colorectal cancer are major public health concerns with substantial disease burden.
Purpose of the Study:
- To forecast the return on investment (ROI) for biologic therapy advancements.
- To analyze the impact on disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality for asthma, diabetes, and colorectal cancer.
- To project economic outcomes for years 2015 and 2030.
Main Methods:
- A deterministic, spreadsheet-based forecasting model was developed.
- Return on investment was defined by reductions in disease burden (prevalence, morbidity, mortality) translated into monetary terms.
- Expert opinion guided the expected impact of biologic therapies, with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) valued at $100,000.
Main Results:
- Base case analysis showed positive ROIs for asthma and diabetes, but below $1 for colorectal cancer.
- Expert panel predictions indicated positive ROIs for all three diseases, ranging from $4 to $207 per dollar spent.
- Considering quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or not, ROIs remained positive across all diseases and time points.
Conclusions:
- Substantial societal returns can be expected from investments in innovative biologic therapies.
- Appropriate utilization of new biologic molecules is key to realizing these benefits.
- Forecasts rely on expert opinion and market projections, which may have inherent variances.
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