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Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions
Drew T Shindell1, Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M Koch
1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA. drew.t.shindell@nasa.gov
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|November 11, 2009
Summary
Climate change mitigation strategies must account for how methane, ozone, and aerosols interact. Methane emissions have a greater warming impact than previously thought, requiring updated climate policies.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric chemistry and climate science
- Climate change mitigation
- Radiative forcing assessment
Background:
- Multicomponent climate change mitigation requires understanding complex emission effects.
- Methane, ozone, and aerosols are interconnected through atmospheric chemistry.
- Single pollutant emissions can influence multiple atmospheric species.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify atmospheric composition changes and radiative forcing from aerosol and tropospheric ozone precursor emissions.
- To assess the impact of gas-aerosol interactions on the relative importance of different emissions.
- To inform climate change mitigation policies by providing accurate forcing per unit emission.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a coupled composition-climate model.
- Calculated atmospheric composition changes.
- Determined historical radiative forcing and forcing per unit emission for key precursors.
Main Results:
- Gas-aerosol interactions significantly alter the perceived importance of various emissions.
- Methane emissions demonstrate a substantially larger climate impact than recognized in current trading schemes and protocols.
- The forcing per unit emission varies considerably when gas-aerosol interactions are considered.
Conclusions:
- Current climate change mitigation policies may underestimate the impact of methane emissions.
- Incorporating gas-aerosol interactions is crucial for accurate multigas mitigation policy assessment.
- Separate efforts to mitigate warming from short-lived pollutants must consider these interactions.
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