D-optimal designs for parameter estimation for indirect pharmacodynamic response models

This report generates efficient experimental designs (dose, sampling times) for parameter estimation for four basic physiologic indirect pharmacodynamic response (IDR) models. The principles underlying IDR models and their response patterns have been well described. Each IDR model explicitly contains four parameters, k (in) (production), k (out) (loss), I (max)/S (max) (capacity) and IC (50)/SC (50) (sensitivity). The pharmacokinetics of an IV dose of drug described by a monoexponential function of time with two parameters, V and k (el), is assumed. The random errors in the response variable are assumed to be additive, independent, and normal with zero mean and variance proportional to some power of the mean response. Optimal design theory was used extensively to assess the role of both dose and sampling times. Our designs were generated in Mathematica (ADAPT 5 typically produces identical results). G-optimality was used to verify that the generated designs were indeed D-optimal. Such designs are efficient and robust when good prior knowledge of the estimated parameters is available. The efficiency of unconstrained D-optimal designs (4 dose, sampling time pairs) does not improve much when the drug doses are allowed to differ, compared with constrained single dose designs (4 sampling times) with one maximal feasible dose. Also, explored were efficiencies of alternative study designs and results from parameter misspecification. This analysis substantiates the importance of larger doses yielding greater certainty in parameter estimation in pharmacodynamics.