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Modelling the impact of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) on UK paediatric intensive care demand

A Ercole1, D K Menon, D R O'Donnell

  • 1Cambridge University Department of Anaesthesia, Box 93, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Hills Road, Cambridge, CB2 2QQ, UK. ae105@cam.ac.uk

Archives of Disease in Childhood
|November 26, 2009
PubMed

Insights

Pandemic influenza A(H1N1) may significantly increase demand for UK paediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Regional variations in critical care provision necessitate enhanced paediatric retrieval services to manage increased winter activity.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Intensive Care
  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Seasonal respiratory viruses cause significant unplanned admissions to UK paediatric intensive care units (PICUs).
  • Pandemic influenza A(H1N1) disproportionately affects children, potentially straining PICU resources.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) demand during a pandemic using current data.
  • To analyze the impact of regional variations in critical care bed availability on pandemic preparedness.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the FluSurge 2.0 model for demand estimation.
  • Employed age-stratified UK population data and conservative epidemiological parameters.

Main Results:

  • A substantial portion of existing paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) capacity may be required during the pandemic peak.
  • Significant regional disparities in critical care provision exist across the UK, leading to varied pandemic impacts.

Conclusions:

  • Contingency planning is essential to address the anticipated rise in paediatric intensive care needs due to pandemic influenza.
  • Paediatric retrieval services are crucial, especially given the uneven distribution of critical care resources regionally.
Abstract

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