Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 18, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
A model to search for birth probabilities of mammal populations using fertility data
J R Moreira1, M Eagle, O J Gillespie
1Embrapa Recursos Genéticos e Biotecnologia, Brasília, DF, Brazil. jmoreira@cenargen.embrapa.br
Abstract:
A model was constructed to predict monthly birth probabilities using mammalian fertility data. We used a sample of 147 female capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) hunted on a farm on Marajó Island, Brazil. In the model each month was treated as a multinomial with six cells representing the six possible reproductive states (five months gestation). A hypothesis test was carried out to see whether a cosine curve would fit the birth probabilities. The results offer no support for a seasonal component (F2,9 = 1.84, P = 0.21), whereas results from a direct census do (F3,23 = 87.29, P < 0.01). Some hunting techniques were biased towards killing pregnant females (chi(2)1= 7.2, P< 0.01), thereby spreading reproduction throughout the year (F2,9 = 1.84, P = 0.21). The model remained a powerful predictive tool to be used with mammalian fertility data as long as the data are not biased towards pregnant females.
Related Concept Videos
Population Growth
Modeling with Differential Equations
Conservation of Declining Populations
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
Applications of Life Tables
Growth Models with Integration: Problem Solving
