[Nonpoint source pollution model, AnnAGNPS, assessment for a mixed forested watershed in Three Gorges Reservoir area]

Watershed models provide a cost-effective and efficient means of estimating the pollutant loadings entering surface waters, especially when combined with traditional water quality sampling and analyses. But there have often been questions about the accuracy or certainty of models and their predictions. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the performance of AnnAGNPS (Annualized AGricultural NonPoint Source)Pollution Model, in simulating runoff, sediment loading and nutrient loadings under Three Gorges Reservoir area. Most of model input parameters were sourced from Zigui Forest Ecology Station in Three Gorges Reservoir area, State Forestry Administration. Data year 2003 was used for calibration while data year 2004 was used for validation of the model. The whole evaluation consisted of determining the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (E), and the percentage volume error (VE). Results showed that the model predicted the daily runoff volume within the range of acceptable accuracy. The runoff on a daily basis was underpredicted by 5.0% with R2 of 0.93 (p < 0.05) during calibration and underpredicted by 6.7% with R2 of 0.90 (p < 0.05) during validation. But sediment loading was able to produce a moderate result. The model underpredicted the event-based sediment loading by 15.1% with R2 of 0.63 (p < 0.05) during calibration and 26.7% with R2 of 0.59 (p < 0.05) during validation. For the events of small magnitude, the model generally overpredicted sediment loading, while the opposite was true for larger events. Nitrogen loading prediction was slightly better with R2 = 0.68 (p < 0.05), and phosphorus loading performance was slightly poor with R2 = 0.65 (p < 0.05). In general, the model performs well in simulating runoff compare to sediment loading and nutrient loadings, and as a watershed management tools it can be used for Three Gorges Reservoir area conditions that with mixed types of land uses and steep slopes.