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Updated: Jun 17, 2026

Implementation of a Real-Time Psychosis Risk Detection and Alerting System Based on Electronic Health Records using CogStack

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Published on: May 15, 2020

The overdiagnosis nightmare: a time for caution.

Stefano Ciatto¹

¹Verona Local Health Unit Screening Programme, Marzana Hospital, Piazza R, 37142 Marzana - Verona, Italy. stefano.ciatto@gmail.com

BMC Women'S Health

|December 18, 2009

Summary

Mammography screening may lead to significant overdiagnosis of breast cancer, potentially affecting up to 33% of cases. Further research is needed to confirm these findings and understand the implications of overdiagnosis in cancer screening.

Area of Science:

Oncology
Radiology
Public Health

Background:

Mammography screening is a widely used method for early breast cancer detection.
Overdiagnosis, the detection of cancers unlikely to cause symptoms, is a known drawback.
Current estimates of overdiagnosis range from 5-10%.

Discussion:

A recent study suggests breast cancer overdiagnosis may be as high as 33% in Denmark.
This higher estimate is based on analyses comparing screened and non-screened areas.
The reliability of such comparative analyses requires careful consideration.

Key Insights:

The potential magnitude of overdiagnosis in mammography screening may be underestimated.
Adjusting for early detection lead time is crucial for accurate comparisons.

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Further evidence is necessary to validate the higher overdiagnosis estimates.

Outlook:

Investigating the impact of lead time bias on overdiagnosis estimates is essential.
Further studies are needed to confirm or refute the 33% overdiagnosis figure.
Understanding and addressing overdiagnosis is critical for optimizing cancer screening programs.