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Cross-correlations between volume change and price change.
Boris Podobnik1, Davor Horvatic, Alexander M Petersen
1Department of Physics, Center for Polymer Studies, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
This study reveals power-law cross-correlations between trading volume growth rate and price changes in financial markets. An approximate inverse cubic law governs these relationships across global indices.
Area of Science:
- Quantitative Finance
- Financial Market Analysis
- Statistical Modeling
Background:
- Traditional financial analysis focuses on price changes, often overlooking trading volume dynamics.
- Understanding the relationship between volume and price fluctuations is crucial for market comprehension.
- Growth rates, derived from logarithmic differences, offer a robust measure for financial time series.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the cross-correlations between volume growth rate and price change in financial markets.
- To model the observed cross-correlations using a joint stochastic process.
- To estimate the tail exponent (alpha) of the probability density function for volume and price changes.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 14,981 daily Standard and Poor's (S&P) 500 Index recordings (1950-2009).
- Application of Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) to identify power-law cross-correlations.
- Development of a new method to estimate the tail exponent (alpha) by analyzing time intervals (tau(q)) between events.
Main Results:
- Significant power-law cross-correlations were found between volume growth rate and price changes.
- A joint stochastic process was introduced to effectively model these cross-correlations.
- The tail exponent alpha was estimated to be approximately 3 for both S&P 500 and NYSE Composite constituents, indicating an approximate inverse cubic law.
Conclusions:
- The study establishes a quantifiable relationship between volume and price dynamics in financial markets.
- The findings suggest universal statistical properties in financial markets, evidenced by the consistent inverse cubic law across global indices.
- The novel method for estimating the tail exponent provides a valuable tool for financial risk assessment.
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