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A new method for estimating smoking-attributable mortality in high-income countries.
Samuel H Preston1, Dana A Glei, John R Wilmoth
1Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
International Journal of Epidemiology
|December 25, 2009
Summary
This study introduces a new method to estimate smoking-attributable deaths in high-income countries. The findings show smoking significantly impacts mortality trends and differences over 50 years.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Cigarette smoking causes substantial mortality globally.
- Existing methods for estimating smoking-attributable deaths have limitations.
- This study proposes an alternative estimation method for high-income countries.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate an alternative method for estimating smoking-attributable deaths.
- To analyze trends and international differences in smoking-attributable mortality.
- To assess the impact of smoking on mortality over the past half-century.
Main Methods:
- Utilized lung cancer death rates as a proxy for smoking-related harm.
- Employed negative binomial regression on administrative data from 20 high-income countries (1950-2006).
- Estimated smoking-attributable deaths by comparing observed lung cancer mortality to expected non-smoker rates.
Main Results:
- In 1955, Finland had the highest smoking-attributable fraction for males (18%); female rates were below 1%.
- By 2003, Hungary led in male smoking-attributable deaths (32%), and the USA led in female deaths (24%).
- The developed method's estimates closely aligned with the Peto-Lopez method, supporting its validity.
Conclusions:
- A simple, effective method for estimating smoking-attributable deaths in high-income nations is presented.
- Smoking has been a primary driver of mortality levels, trends, and international disparities for over 50 years.
- The findings underscore the significant public health burden of smoking.
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