Individual probability for onset of full-blown disease in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1

Increased concentrations of neopterin, a marker for cell-mediated immune activation, and decreased numbers of CD4+ T cells, are predictors for progression of disease after infection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1. Previous studies have demonstrated different rates of onset of full-blown acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) for groups of patients, defined by laboratory marker values, who were initially symptom-free. By re-analysis of one such study, we demonstrate how for an individual patient, the individual marker values, together with a prior risk estimate, can be converted into current or accumulated post-test probability of onset of AIDS at a certain time. We used a statistical technique suggested by Albert et al. (Clin Chem 1984;30:69-76), which allows incorporation of fixed and time-dependent covariates. Besides allowing individual projections, the method shows that the predictive abilities of CD4+ T cell numbers and of neopterin concentrations do not vary greatly with regard to time of observation; both laboratory markers independently modulate the underlying prior probability of AIDS onset, which is significantly increased with the passage of time.