Demonstrating freedom from Mycobacterium bovis infection in Swedish farmed deer using non-survey data sources

Sweden has been considered free from bovine tuberculosis (BTB) since 1958. In 1987 an infected consignment of farmed deer was imported to Sweden and in 1991 the first infected deer was identified. Despite a thorough trace back investigation, all deer originating from the infected consignment could not be traced. Therefore a national control programme for BTB in farmed deer was implemented. At present the control programme is in its final stage and all deer holdings that have not obtained BTB-free status are put under restrictions. This study aimed to determine the probability that the Swedish farmed deer population is free from BTB using methods that allow analysis of non-structured data, i.e. results from meat inspection, necropsies and tuberculin testing. Surveillance data from 1994 to October 2006 from farmed deer affiliated to the voluntary control programme were analysed using the model described in Martin et al. (2007a). The model was adjusted to allow the within-herd design prevalence to be defined as one infected deer per herd and the between-herd design prevalence to be defined as one infected deer herd in the country. Depending on the chosen within-herd design prevalence: 1, 2, 3 or 4 infected deer per herd or 5% infected deer per herd, the probability of freedom from BTB infection in the Swedish farmed deer population varied between 87% and 97%. Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded, with high confidence, that the Swedish farmed deer population is free from M. bovis.