Patterns of adolescent smoking and later nicotine dependence in young adults: a 10-year prospective study

There is considerable variability in progression from smoking initiation to established smoking. This paper addresses the extent to which different patterns of adolescent smoking, including periods of cessation, predict smoking status in young adults.

Ten-year, eight-wave prospective cohort study of a state-wide community sample in Victoria, Australia.

Participants were 1520 students from 44 secondary schools, initially aged 14 to 15 years. Adolescent smoking and quitting patterns were assessed during Waves 1-6 with self-reported frequency of use and a 7-day retrospective diary. The Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (ND) was used to assess ND at the age of 24 years (Wave 8).

The prevalence of ND in young adults was 16.9% for all adolescent smokers, with prevalence rates of 6.8% and 26.7% for adolescent non-daily and daily adolescent smokers, respectively. Maximum smoking levels, onset of daily smoking, duration of smoking, escalation time and duration of cessation during adolescence predicted later ND. Daily smokers who ceased smoking for at least two waves (> or = 12 months) had a level of risk similar to adolescents who had never smoked.

Quitting smoking as an adolescent substantially alters the risk for later ND. For adolescents who become daily smokers, quitting for 12 months should be the aim in tobacco control and clinical interventions.