[Progression toward type-2 diabetes mellitus among Mexican pre-diabetics. Assessment of a cohort]

Pre-diabetic Latino subjects have shown higher incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) compared with other populations. The incidence is unknown in the Mexican population. Our aim was to identify the annual incidence of DM2 among a Mexican pre-diabetic population.

An inception cohort of healthy Mexican patients was followed from 2001 to 2006. Those who fulfilled diagnosis of DM2 (ADA criteria) were registered at one and 2 years of follow-up among pre-diabetic and normoglucemic individuals. We compared relevant variables between both groups, those who developed diabetes and those who did not.

656 subjects were included; at one year, 14 patients were diagnosed with DM2, 11 among pre-diabetics, incidence of 4.5 %; 3 among normoglucemic subjects, incidence of 0.72 %. The relative risk for the development of DM2 in the pre-diabetic group was 7.7 (IC95 % 2.1-27.9), and among the normoglucemic group of 1.04 (IC95 % 1.02-1.08). At the 2nd year, DM2 incidence was 7.6 % in pre-diabetics, and 0.6 % in normoglucemics. Risk factors associated were higher fast glucose and greater BMI.

We found a constant annual incidence of DM2 among prediabetics of 6 cases per 100 patient/year in follow-up. Higher fast glucose determinations and greater BMI are the main determinants for DM2 development.