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Related Concept Videos

Convenience Sampling Method00:55

Convenience Sampling Method

Sampling is a technique to select a portion (or subset) of the larger population and study that portion (the sample) to gain information about the population. Data are the result of sampling from a population. The sampling method ensures that samples are drawn without bias and accurately represent the population.
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Updated: Jun 16, 2026

The Joint Effect of Social Comparison and Social Distance on Evaluation of Intertemporal Choice Outcomes in Event-related Potential Studies
08:24

The Joint Effect of Social Comparison and Social Distance on Evaluation of Intertemporal Choice Outcomes in Event-related Potential Studies

Published on: August 25, 2023

Decisions from experience: why small samples?

Ralph Hertwig1, Timothy J Pleskac

  • 1University of Basel, Department of Psychology, Missionsstrasse 60/64, 4055 Basel, Switzerland. ralph.hertwig@unibas.ch

Cognition
|January 23, 2010
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

People often make decisions with limited information by sampling options. Small samples amplify differences between choices, making decisions easier but potentially costly.

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Area of Science:

  • Decision-making under uncertainty
  • Behavioral economics
  • Risk perception

Background:

  • Individuals often lack explicit statistical data for risk assessment in decision-making.
  • Decisions from experience rely on sampling payoff distributions.
  • Observed tendency for small sample sizes in decision-making, sometimes reduced by recency effects.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify a previously unnoticed reason for reliance on small samples in decisions from experience.
  • To investigate how small samples influence the perceived differences between options.
  • To quantify the amplification effect of small samples on expected earnings and its implications.

Main Methods:

  • Empirical testing of four implications derived from the small sample amplification hypothesis.
  • Analysis of decision-making processes involving sampling from payoff distributions.
  • Quantification of the amplification effect and its associated costs.

Main Results:

  • Small sample sizes amplify the difference in expected earnings between payoff distributions.
  • This amplification effect simplifies choice by making options more distinct.
  • The study quantifies this amplification and its potential decision-making costs.

Conclusions:

  • Reliance on small samples in decisions from experience may be partly driven by the amplification of option differences.
  • While simplifying choice, this heuristic can lead to suboptimal outcomes due to amplified perceived differences.
  • Understanding this amplification effect is crucial for explaining and improving decision-making strategies.