Predictors of survival in patients with non-curative stage IV cancer and malignant bowel obstruction

Malignant bowel obstruction (MBO) occurs in up to 15% of patients admitted to palliative care wards and management can be clinically challenging. Survival is generally poor with a reported median survival of 1-3 months; however, there are no studies describing predictors of survival for patients with MBO.

All patients admitted to a tertiary care hospital with a MBO were approached between March 1, 2006 and March 31, 2008 to enter the study. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and radiographic information were prospectively collected from patient charts and the patient's functional status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score, ECOG) at admission was recorded. Follow-up was until death or the end of the study (August 2008). Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier plots and Cox regression models were used to evaluate prognostic factors for survival.

Thirty-five patients were recruited. Median patient age was 61% and 46% were female. Median survival of the cohort was 80 days (range 7-873). Median survival for patients with an ECOG performance status of 0-1 (n = 15) was 222 days, for ECOG 2 patients (n = 9), 63 days and for patients with an ECOG 3/4 score (n = 11) it was 27 days. ECOG status was the strongest predictor of survival on the multivariate analysis. In addition, a low blood urea nitrogen level or a high albumin on admission was also associated with prolonged survival.

An ECOG score of 0/1 for patients with MBO in the setting of Stage IV non-curative cancer is the strongest predictor of overall survival.