A two-variable linear model of parotid shrinkage during IMRT for head and neck cancer

To assess anatomical, clinical and dosimetric pre-treatment parameters, possibly predictors of parotid shrinkage during radiotherapy of head and neck cancer (HNC).

Data of 174 parotids from four institutions were analysed; patients were treated with IMRT, with radical and adjuvant intent. Parotid shrinkage was evaluated by the volumetric difference (DeltaV) between parotid volumes at the end and those at the start of the therapy, as assessed by CT images (MVCT for 40 patients, KVCT for 47 patients). Correlation between DeltaVcc/% and a number of dosimetric, clinical and geometrical parameters was assessed. Univariate as well as stepwise logistic multivariate (MVA) analyses were performed by considering as an end-point a DeltaVcc/% larger than the median value. Linear models of DeltaV (continuous variable) based on the most predictive variables found at the MVA were developed.

Median DeltaVcc/% were 6.95 cc and 26%, respectively. The most predictive independent variables of DeltaVcc at MVA were the initial parotid volume (IPV, OR: 1.100; p=0.0002) and Dmean (OR: 1.059; p=0.038). The main independent predictors of DeltaV% at MVA were age (OR: 0.968; p=0.041) and V40 (OR: 1.0338; p=0.013). DeltaVcc and DeltaV% may be well described by the equations: DeltaVcc=-2.44+0.076 Dmean (Gy)+0.279 IPV (cc) and DeltaV%=34.23+0.192 V40 (%)-0.2203 age (year). The predictive power of the DeltaVcc model is higher than that of the DeltaV% model.

IPV/age and Dmean/V40 are the major dosimetric and clinical/anatomic predictors of DeltaVcc and DeltaV%. DeltaVcc and DeltaV% may be well described by bi-linear models including the above-mentioned variables.