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Updated: Jun 16, 2026
10:14
Reconstructing Terrestrial Paleoclimate and Paleoecology with Fossil Leaves Using Digital Leaf Physiognomy and Leaf Mass Per Area
Published on: October 25, 2024
Vegetation response to early holocene warming as an analog for current and future changes
1U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center, P.O. 5614, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA. ken_cole@usgs.gov
Summary
Climate change will cause ecological shifts, favoring rapid-colonizing species over slow ones. Fossil plant data from the Grand Canyon show these shifts can last thousands of years, challenging vegetation models.
Area of Science:
- Paleoecology
- Climate Change Ecology
- Plant Succession
Background:
- Southwestern North America faces projected temperature increases of 3.5-4°C over 60-90 years.
- Climate shifts drive changes in species ranges and ecological succession.
- Current models may underestimate long-term ecological responses to climate change.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the duration and nature of ecological shifts following rapid warming events.
- To use fossil plant assemblages from the Grand Canyon as a proxy for past climate change impacts.
- To inform future conservation strategies and challenge equilibrium-based vegetation models.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of fossil plant assemblages from the Grand Canyon.
- Examination of species composition shifts in response to past rapid warming events (Holocene, ~11,700 years ago).
- Comparison of responses to warming events of varying magnitudes and durations.
Main Results:
- Rapid warming events (~4°C in <100 years) caused shifts favoring early-successional species over late-successional ones.
- These ecological shifts persisted for at least 2700 years.
- Late-successional species dominance was only reestablished after 4000+ years of stable temperatures.
Conclusions:
- Future ecological changes in response to climate change may be prolonged and complex.
- The rise of invasive exotic species could indicate a broader resurgence of early-successional vegetation.
- Equilibrium-based vegetation and carbon balance models projecting conditions within a century may be unreliable.
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