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Pandemic influenza 2009 on Réunion Island: A mild wave linked to a low reproduction number

Philippe Renault1, Eric D'Ortenzio, Florence Kermarec

  • 1Regional office of the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance; Regional office of French Institute for Public Health Surveillance (Institut de veille sanitaire, InVS) Saint-Denis, Réunion Island, France; Environmental Health Department of the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance, Saint-Maurice, France and Regional Office of the French Institute for Health Surveillance.

Plos Currents
|March 2, 2012
PubMed

Insights

The 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic on Réunion Island had a 12.85% symptomatic attack rate. A second wave before winter 2010 is unlikely due to herd immunity levels, barring viral mutation.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Virology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) spread globally.
  • Subtropical regions present unique epidemiological dynamics.
  • Understanding local epidemic trends is crucial for public health preparedness.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the epidemic trend of pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 on Réunion Island.
  • To estimate the attack rate and initial reproduction number.
  • To assess the likelihood of a second wave.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective epidemiological analysis.
  • Estimation of key epidemiological parameters (attack rate, reproduction number).
  • Modeling of epidemic spread and herd immunity thresholds.

Main Results:

  • The pandemic wave occurred from week 30 to 38.
  • Estimated symptomatic attack rate was 12.85%.
  • Initial reproduction number (Ri) was estimated at 1.26 [1.08; 1.49].

Conclusions:

  • Herd immunity levels were comparable to the attack rate.
  • A second wave before the 2010 austral winter was deemed unlikely.
  • Viral mutation remains a potential factor for future waves.

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