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"Going with the flow"--a comparison of interstate elderly migration during 1970-2000 using the (I)PUMS versus full
Karen Smith Conway1, Jonathan C Rork
1Department of Economics, University of New Hampshire, Durham, USA.
Summary
Elderly migration patterns remained stable from 1970-2000. Data source choice, particularly Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS), can exaggerate changes in elderly migration over time.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Geography
Background:
- State-to-state elderly migration patterns are a key demographic indicator.
- Understanding migration trends is crucial for policy and resource allocation.
- Previous studies have utilized various data sources, leading to potential inconsistencies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze changes in elderly migration patterns between 1970 and 2000.
- To compare migration findings derived from census flow tabulations and IPUMS data.
- To assess the reliability of different data sources for studying elderly migration.
Main Methods:
- Calculation of descriptive statistics including migration rates and geographic concentration (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index).
- Comparative analysis using correlations and regression to assess temporal and data source differences.
- Examination of top origin and destination states for elderly migrants.
Main Results:
- Elderly migration rates increased until 1980, then stabilized with a slight decline.
- Geographic concentration of elderly migration decreased, with shifts in popular destination states.
- Migration patterns demonstrated high persistence over time, especially with larger census datasets.
Conclusions:
- Elderly interstate migration patterns have been largely stable since 1970.
- The Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) may overestimate temporal changes in elderly migration due to sample size.
- Census flow tabulations provide a more stable representation of long-term elderly migration trends.
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