Vaccine demand driven by vaccine side effects: dynamic implications for SIR diseases

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Modeling
• Public Health

Background:

• Low perceived risk of serious infection can shift focus to vaccine side effects.
• Vaccine demand is influenced by perceived risks of adverse events.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impact of vaccine side effect perception on vaccine uptake and disease dynamics.
• To model the relationship between vaccine side effects, uptake, and infection spread.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for homogeneously mixing populations.
• Modeled vaccine uptake as a decreasing function of vaccine side effect incidence/prevalence.
• Incorporated vaccine side effects as functions of age since vaccination.

Main Results:

• Vaccine uptake dynamics can stabilize or oscillate independently of epidemiological variables.
• Trends in vaccine side effects can lead to unexpected epidemiological scenarios.
• Perceived vaccine side effect risk can significantly drive vaccine demand, especially for less severe diseases.

Conclusions:

• Vaccine side effect dynamics play a crucial role in vaccine demand and disease control.
• Mathematical modeling reveals complex interactions between vaccine perception and infection dynamics.
• Public health strategies must consider the influence of vaccine side effect concerns on uptake.