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A comparative analysis of hotspot identification methods.

Alfonso Montella¹

¹University of Naples Federico II, Department of Transportation Engineering Luigi Tocchetti, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italy. alfonso.montella@unina.it

Accident; Analysis and Prevention

|February 18, 2010

Summary

The empirical Bayes (EB) method is the most reliable for identifying highway crash hotspots, outperforming other methods in consistency and accuracy. This research suggests EB should be the standard for effective highway safety management.

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Area of Science:

Transportation Engineering
Traffic Safety Analysis
Highway Management

Background:

Accurate identification of crash hotspots is crucial for effective highway safety management.
Inefficient hotspot identification leads to wasted resources and reduced safety improvements.
Limited research compares the performance of various hotspot identification (HSID) methods.

Purpose of the Study:

To quantitatively compare the performance of seven common HSID methods.
To evaluate HSID methods based on site consistency, method consistency, and ranking.
To determine the most reliable HSID method for prioritizing safety investigations.

Main Methods:

Compared seven HSID methods: crash frequency (CF), EPDO, crash rate (CR), proportion (P), empirical Bayes (EB) total-crash, EB severe-crash (EBs), and potential for improvement (PFI).
Utilized four quantitative evaluation criteria: site consistency, method consistency, total rank differences, and total score tests.
Applied five years of crash data from the Italian motorway A16 for analysis.

Main Results:

The empirical Bayes (EB) method demonstrated superior performance, showing the highest consistency and reliability in identifying priority locations.
EB total-crash frequency (EB) outperformed EB severe-crash frequency (EBs).
The crash frequency (CF) method performed better than the crash rate (CR) method, a concerning finding as CR is widely used. PFI and EPDO methods were inconsistent, and the proportion method performed worst.

Conclusions:

The empirical Bayes (EB) method is recommended as the standard for hotspot identification due to its reliability and effectiveness.
Identified hotspots using the EB method were successfully addressed with engineering countermeasures.
Further research replicating this study in different countries is recommended to validate the EB method's universal applicability.