Projecting subacute inpatient activity in New South Wales

We describe the development of a method for estimating and modelling future demand for sub- and non-acute inpatient activity across New South Wales, Australia to 2016. A time series linear regression equation was used, which is consistent with projection models found in the literature. Results of the modelling indicated an increase in rehabilitation, palliative care and maintenance episodes and bed-days. Projections for other categories of care are problematic due to smaller levels of activity and data quality issues. This project indicated a need for ongoing monitoring of type-changing by facilities and management of data quality. Local planners will need to consider a range of factors when considering the applicability activity projections at a local level, particularly within the specific age and clinical groupings.