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Adolescent smoking and drinking: are they "epidemics"?
1School of Family and Consumer Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson 85721.
Journal of Studies on Alcohol
|March 1, 1991
Summary
Adolescent alcohol and smoking rates dramatically increase. Statistical epidemic models reveal that alcohol use follows a logistic curve, while smoking patterns suggest some individuals may be immune to initiation.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Adolescent Health
- Statistical Modeling
Background:
- Adolescence is a critical period for the onset of substance use.
- Cumulative prevalence of alcohol and cigarette use escalates significantly during these years.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model lifetime prevalence of smoking and drinking in adolescents.
- To apply statistical theories of epidemic infectious disease transmission to substance use patterns.
Main Methods:
- Utilized logistic curves, commonly used in epidemic modeling, to analyze prevalence data.
- Assessed alcohol use assuming random adolescent contacts and 'adequate contacts' for conversion.
- Modeled smoking prevalence considering both a fully 'at risk' population and the possibility of 'immune' individuals.
Main Results:
- Adolescent alcohol use prevalence closely fit a logistic epidemic model, with an average of 0.48 adequate contacts per drinker per year.
- Smoking prevalence modeling yielded a mean contact parameter of 0.28 without an immune class, and 0.77 when an immune class was assumed.
- The findings suggest distinct transmission dynamics for alcohol and tobacco initiation in adolescents.
Conclusions:
- Epidemic modeling provides a viable framework for understanding adolescent substance use initiation.
- Distinct parameters for alcohol and smoking suggest different social transmission mechanisms.
- Future models could incorporate individual variability in contact rates and multiple substance use states.