Temporal trends in chronic obstructive lung disease case fatality in hospitalized US veterans: 1970-1987

Vital statistics data have suggested that age-adjusted mortality from chronic obstructive lung diseases (CLD) is increasing. The present investigation has used the US Veterans Administration (VA) hospital computer database to determine whether trends in CLD case fatality follow trends in CLD population mortality. Data for male patients discharged from 172 VA hospitals from 1970 through 1987 were utilized. Patients were included if they had a CLD as a first-listed hospital discharge diagnosis, did not have any of a number of smoking-related cardiovascular or malignant diseases, and were born in the years 1900 through 1939. While crude case fatality for all CLD increased from 5.2 percent in 1970 to 7.4 percent in 1987, age-adjusted case fatality decreased from a peak of 8.5 percent in 1971 to 5.8 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 5.4 to 6.61 percent) in 1987. This trend was seen for all CLD diagnoses, including asthma. Age-specific case fatality decreased for each successive 5-year birth cohort, and age at death remained relatively constant over the last 14 years of the study. The declining case fatality could not be explained by changes in the ICD coding rubrics. The extent to which case fatality has been declining due to improved treatment and/or cohort-related changes in tobacco smoke exposure could not be determined definitively from the data.