Trends in thyroid cancer incidence in Sweden, 1958-1981, by histopathologic type

Time trends in the incidence of malignant neoplasms of the thyroid were examined for Sweden for the period 1958-81, 5,838 cases being studied. Autopsy-diagnosed cases were excluded. Mean annual changes in the age-standardized rates over this period were 1.9% and 1.2% for women and men, respectively, for all thyroid carcinomas combined; 4.9% and 2.1% for papillary carcinoma; 0.9% and 2.1% for follicular carcinoma; and -1.0% and -2.1% for anaplastic carcinoma. Age, period and cohort models were fitted. There was a progressive increase in papillary cancer incidence for cohorts born since 1919. This increase cannot be satisfactorily explained as an artefact of trends in classification, and probably reflects a real increase in incidence. A less marked increase was seen for follicular cancer, and there was a decline for cohorts born since 1939. While the risk of papillary and anaplastic carcinoma was lower in iodine-deficient areas, follicular cancer risk was twice as high in these areas, for men only. There was a steady decline of anaplastic cancer in both sexes after 1965, largely attributable to a decline in cohorts born since 1924.