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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 15, 2026

Errors as a Means of Reducing Impulsive Food Choice

Errors as a Means of Reducing Impulsive Food Choice

Published on: June 5, 2016

Can overconfidence be debiased by low-probability/high-consequence events?

Shu Li¹, Jin-Zhen Li, Yi-Wen Chen

¹Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. lishu@psych.ac.cn

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

|March 5, 2010

Summary

Experiencing major natural disasters, like earthquakes or disease outbreaks, can reduce overconfidence. However, this effect may lessen over time as disaster victims gradually regain their previous levels of overconfidence.

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Area of Science:

Psychology
Behavioral Economics
Disaster Studies

Background:

Major natural disasters, such as the 2008 Chinese snowstorms, hand-foot-mouth disease outbreak, and earthquake, represent low-probability/high-consequence events.
Overconfidence is a cognitive bias that can affect decision-making and risk assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the influence of low-probability/high-consequence events on individuals' overconfidence.
To determine if the impact of such events on overconfidence diminishes over time.

Main Methods:

Study 1: A peer-comparison probability judgment questionnaire was administered to 539 residents in disaster-hit areas and 142 residents in a non-disaster area.
Study 2: 336 earthquake victims were surveyed at 4 and 11 months post-disaster to assess changes in overconfidence.

Main Results:

Residents in disaster-hit areas exhibited less overconfidence compared to those in non-disaster areas.
Disaster victims showed increasing overconfidence as time passed since the event.

Conclusions:

Low-probability/high-consequence events can serve as a debiasing mechanism, promoting more rational judgments.
The debiasing effect of disasters on overconfidence may be temporary, with confidence levels potentially returning to baseline over time.