The role of prior quitting experience in the prediction of smoking cessation

In the Transtheoretical Model (TTM), the preparation stage (as applied to smoking cessation) is defined as planning to quit in the next 30 days plus having quit for at least 24 h in the last year. This study examined the value of prior quitting experience as a stage classification criterion by investigating whether prediction of making a quit attempt differed as a function of prior quitting experience.

One thousand and forty-six participants, all planning to quit in the next 30 days, in a randomised trial of the effectiveness of a telephone counselling and computer-generated tailored advice intervention were followed up at 3 months.

A multivariate predictive model had markedly greater capacity to predict making a quit attempt among participants with prior quitting experience (as defined in several different ways), compared to analyses of the overall sample. A previous attempt of 24 h in the previous month was associated with the greatest difference in prediction. A quit attempt in the previous year (the TTM definition) did not discriminate.

Recent prior quitting experience moderated the predictive capacity of some variables that influence smoking cessation. The findings provide some support for a stage model of smoking cessation but not its operationalisation by the TTM.