Pre-stimulation parameters predicting live birth after IVF in the long GnRH agonist protocol

Area of Science:

• Reproductive Endocrinology
• In Vitro Fertilization (IVF)

Background:

• Predicting live birth in IVF is crucial for patient counseling and treatment optimization.
• Existing models often rely on established factors like female age and duration of infertility.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify novel pre-stimulation parameters associated with live birth in IVF.
• To develop an early-phase predictive model for live birth chances in IVF cycles.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of data from a randomized trial involving 731 women undergoing IVF.
• Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictive parameters.

Main Results:

• Novel parameters significantly associated with live birth included duration of agonist use, endometrial thickness, and pre-stimulation hormone levels (progesterone, androstenedione, total testosterone, free androgen index).
• The best predictive model incorporated age, duration of infertility, infertility diagnosis, endometrial thickness, pre-stimulation total testosterone, and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG).
• The final model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.65.

Conclusions:

• Younger age and marked suppression of ovarian steroids prior to stimulation may enhance the likelihood of live birth in the long protocol.
• The developed model offers an early-phase prediction of live birth chances in IVF.