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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 14, 2026

Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM)

Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM)

Published on: October 11, 2016

Eliciting distributions to populate decision analytic models.

Laura Bojke¹, Karl Claxton, Yolanda Bravo-Vergel

¹Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK. lg116@york.ac.uk

Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research

|March 30, 2010

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Expert elicitation can characterize uncertainty in decision models, aiding evidence value assessment. This study applied it to psoriatic arthritis treatment, showing high value for further research, particularly on short-term effectiveness.

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Last Updated: Jun 14, 2026

Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM)

Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM)

Published on: October 11, 2016

Area of Science:

Health Economics
Decision Analysis
Rheumatology

Background:

Expert elicitation quantifies structural uncertainty in decision analytic models.
This facilitates establishing the value of acquiring further evidence to resolve uncertainties.

Purpose of the Study:

Demonstrate expert elicitation for characterizing model uncertainty.
Compare elicited results with alternative assumptions for uncertainty characterization.

Main Methods:

Elicited expert distributions for two unknown parameters.
Applied distributions in a cost-effectiveness model for psoriatic arthritis (PsA) treatments (infliximab, etanercept vs. palliative care).
Synthesized expert distributions using linear pooling and random effects meta-analysis, exploring expert weighting.

Main Results:

Cost-effectiveness analysis indicated etanercept or palliative care as optimal strategies.
High decision uncertainty (at £30,000 threshold) generated substantial value for further research (£141-£634 million).
Short-term treatment effectiveness represented the greatest value for further research (£47-£406 million).

Conclusions:

Cost-effectiveness results were similar between elicited and original models.
Significant contrasts emerged in the estimated values of further research.
Expert elicitation is a feasible method for generating evidence, but further research is needed on key issues.