Ecosystem changes in the Neva Estuary (Baltic Sea): natural dynamics or response to anthropogenic impacts?

The Neva Estuary situated in the eastern Gulf of Finland is one of the largest estuaries of the Baltic Sea with a large conurbation, St. Petersburg, situated on its coast. Eutrophication, alien species and large-scale digging and dumping of bottom sediment are the most prominent anthropogenic impacts on its ecosystem. However, many ecosystem responses, which are traditionally attribute to these impacts, are related to natural dynamics of the ecosystem. Fluctuations in discharge of the Neva River, intrusions of bottom hypoxic waters from the western part of the Gulf of Finland, higher summer temperatures and a shorter period of ice cover are climatic mediated factors inducing adverse changes in its ecosystem from the 1980s onwards. The main ecosystem responses to these factors are 2-3-fold increase of trophic status, deterioration of native zoobenthic communities and establishment of alien species, as well as the many fold decrease of fish catch and the population of ringed seal in the region.