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Updated: Jun 14, 2026
A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Prognostic factors of multiple sclerosis in Lebanon
Bassem Yamout1, Salam Itani, Asma Arabi
1Department of Neurology, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon. yamoutba@idm.net.lb
Background:
Multiple sclerosis (MS) has a variable disease course. Identifying early predictive prognostic factors is of paramount importance. Most of the data on these factors however comes from studies performed in western countries. Such data is lacking in the Arab World. The objective of this study is to identify early predictors of disability among MS patients in Lebanon.
Methods:
75 relapsing-remitting MS patients with 5 year follow-up from disease onset were selected from Project MS Lebanon database. The following parameters were studied as potential causes of early disability as defined by an EDSS > or = 3, after five years from disease onset: age at onset of MS, gender, interval between first and second attack, residual deficit after first attack, initial symptoms, treatment for at least 1 year in the first 5 years, and the number of relapses in the first 2 and 5 years.
Results:
Patients with incomplete recovery from the first relapse were 11.66 times more likely to have a higher EDSS after 5 years (CI = 2.02-67.31, p = .001). Furthermore, the number of relapses during the first 5 years was also an independent predictor of EDSS > or = 3 at 5 years (p = .024). Other factors were not shown to predict a worse outcome.
Conclusion:
Overall, early predictors of disability in MS among the Lebanese population were not very different from similar predictors in western countries.
Insights
Incomplete recovery after the first multiple sclerosis (MS) relapse and a higher number of relapses within five years predict greater disability. These early indicators are crucial for managing MS progression in Lebanon.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Immunology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Multiple sclerosis (MS) exhibits a variable disease course, necessitating early prognostic factor identification.
- Existing prognostic data for MS predominantly originates from Western countries, with a scarcity of research from the Arab World.
- This study addresses the need for localized data by investigating early disability predictors in Lebanese MS patients.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify early predictors of long-term disability in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients within the Lebanese population.
- To establish prognostic factors relevant to a Middle Eastern demographic.
- To contribute to a better understanding of MS progression in diverse ethnic and geographic settings.
Main Methods:
- A cohort of 75 relapsing-remitting MS patients with a 5-year follow-up from disease onset was analyzed.
- Data was extracted from the Project MS Lebanon database.
- Potential predictors of an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3 at 5 years included age at onset, gender, relapse interval, residual deficit, initial symptoms, treatment, and relapse frequency.
Main Results:
- Incomplete recovery from the initial relapse significantly increased the likelihood of higher EDSS scores (11.66 times more likely, p = .001).
- The number of relapses within the first five years independently predicted an EDSS score of 3 or higher at five years (p = .024).
- Other studied factors did not demonstrate significant predictive value for long-term disability.
Conclusions:
- Early predictors of disability in Lebanese MS patients align with those identified in Western populations.
- Incomplete recovery from the first relapse and relapse frequency are key early indicators of MS disability.
- Findings underscore the importance of monitoring early disease activity for predicting long-term outcomes in MS.
