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Related Experiment Videos

Subjective probability and delay.

H Rachlin1, A Raineri, D Cross

  • 1Psychology Department, State University of New York, Stony Brook 11794.

Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior
|March 1, 1991
PubMed
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Human decision-making for rewards shows hyperbolic discounting for both delayed and probabilistic monetary rewards. This pattern mirrors findings in animal behavior, suggesting conserved principles in value assessment across species.

Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Neuroscience
  • Psychology

Background:

  • Individuals often face choices involving immediate versus delayed or certain versus probabilistic rewards.
  • Understanding how subjective value changes with delay and probability is crucial for behavioral modeling.
  • Previous research (Mazur, 1987) identified hyperbolic discounting in pigeons for delayed rewards.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate human subjective valuation of monetary rewards under conditions of delay and probability.
  • To compare human delay discounting functions with those observed in animal models.
  • To examine the relationship between subjective equivalence and objective parameters like probability and delay.

Main Methods:

  • Experiment 1: Human participants chose between a hypothetical $1,000 reward (with varying probabilities or delays) and a certain immediate reward of variable amount.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Experiment 2: Participants chose between a delayed $1,000 reward and a probabilistic $1,000 reward.
  • Analysis involved determining subjective equivalences and fitting hyperbolic functions to the data.
  • Main Results:

    • Subjective value decreased hyperbolically with reward delay, similar to pigeons' delay discounting.
    • Subjective value decreased hyperbolically with decreasing probability of reward, when probability was transformed to odds against winning.
    • In choices between delayed and probabilistic rewards, delay was proportional to the odds-against transformation of probability.

    Conclusions:

    • Human valuation of delayed and probabilistic rewards follows a hyperbolic discounting pattern.
    • The findings suggest a conserved mechanism for subjective value assessment across species (humans and pigeons).
    • The odds-against transformation provides a unified way to model both delay and probability discounting.