Ecological processes can synchronize marine population dynamics over continental scales

Area of Science:

• Marine ecology
• Population dynamics
• Ecological modeling

Background:

• Classical ecological theory posits local processes govern demographic rates and dispersal, while regional factors dictate abundance patterns.
• Understanding the interplay between local and regional drivers is crucial for predicting population distributions in marine ecosystems.

Purpose of the Study:

• To infer the relative influence of local and regional processes on the distribution of mussel population abundance.
• To compare observed mussel population dynamics with predictions from dynamical models under varying dispersal and environmental conditions.

Main Methods:

• Utilized spatial synchrony as an indicator to analyze population abundance data of Mytilus californianus along the U.S. West Coast.
• Employed dynamical models with different dispersal and environmental treatments to simulate and compare population dynamics.

Main Results:

• Observed synchronized fluctuations in mussel populations across the entire West Coast, spanning 1,800 km.
• Demonstrated that limited larval dispersal interacts with local demographic processes to create spatial synchrony patterns.
• Showcased the significant role of dispersal and local dynamics in governing continental-scale abundance distribution.

Conclusions:

• Dispersal and local population dynamics are critical drivers of continental-scale abundance distribution for Mytilus californianus.
• Findings suggest limitations in using 'climate envelope' models for predicting large-scale ecosystem responses to global climate change.