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Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations
Published on: September 16, 2015
Bounded uncertainty and climate change economics
Christopher J Costello1, Michael G Neubert, Stephen A Polasky
1Donald Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.
Abstract:
It has been argued recently that the combination of risk aversion and an uncertainty distribution of future temperature change with a heavy upper tail invalidates mainstream economic analyses of climate change policy. A simple model is used to explore the effect of imposing an upper bound on future temperature change. The analysis shows that imposing even a high bound reverses the earlier argument and that the optimal policy, as measured by the willingness to pay to avoid climate change, is relatively insensitive to this bound over a wide range.
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