The use of risk analysis to evaluate alternatives to animal destruction

Risk analysis is a tool for decision-making in the face of uncertainty. It provides numerical estimates of the probabilities and consequences associated with particular scenarios, and may be a valuable technique for comparing different animal disease control strategies and for quantifying their expected effectiveness and the uncertainties of expected results. Within the framework of risk analysis, option evaluation is the process of identifying, selecting and evaluating the efficacy and feasibility of measures in order to reduce the likelihood and/or magnitude of adverse health and economic consequences, including the reduction of mass animal destruction. Examples on the use of option evaluation in the framework of risk analysis in Italy are discussed and include the design of the national bluetongue vaccination programme, modifications in the bluetongue surveillance programme, risk mitigation measures for animal movement in the bluetongue control programme, and evaluation of different testing procedures for brucellosis. A supplementary benefit in all these examples was the significant reduction in the number of animals that had to be destroyed. It is becoming increasingly evident that risk analysis can be a technically sound and socially responsible way to assist decision-making among members of industry, government and the general public. Increasingly, the use of risk analysis supports decision-making in the fields of international trade and health, management of natural disasters, national security, and provides a legitimate alternative to mass animal destruction.