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Demographic consequences of defeating aging
Leonid A Gavrilov1, Natalia S Gavrilova
1Center on Aging, NORC and The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA. gavrilov@longevity-science.org
Rejuvenation Research
|April 30, 2010
Summary
Radical life extension may not cause overpopulation, as demographic changes are slow. Real concerns for anti-aging efforts lie in scientific, organizational, and financial hurdles, not population growth.
Area of Science:
- Biogerontology
- Demography
- Population Studies
Background:
- Concerns exist regarding potential overpopulation from successful anti-aging interventions.
- Detailed demographic projections for radical life extension scenarios are lacking.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore demographic scenarios and population projections for a successful biomedical war on aging.
- To clarify the potential demographic consequences of radical life extension.
Main Methods:
- Applied the cohort-component method for population projections.
- Utilized 2005 Swedish population data.
- Modeled various life extension scenarios and a 2005 fertility schedule.
Main Results:
- Population changes respond slowly to dramatic life extension.
- Even with no aging after 60, a 100-year projection showed only a 22% population increase (9.1 to 11.0 million).
- Societal non-compliance with anti-aging tech could lead to population decrease.
Conclusions:
- Radical life extension may not necessarily lead to catastrophic overpopulation.
- Obstacles like scientific, organizational, and financial limitations are more significant concerns than population growth.
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