Estimation and spatiotemporal analysis of methane emissions from agriculture in China

Estimating and analyzing the temporal and spatial patterns of methane emissions from agriculture (MEA) will help China formulate mitigation and adaptation strategies for the nation's agricultural sector. Based on the Tier 2 method presented in the 2006 guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and on existing reports, this article presents a systematic estimation of MEA in China from 1990 to 2006, with a particular emphasis on trends and spatial distribution. Results from our study indicate that China's MEA rose from 16.37 Tg yr(-1) in 1990 to 19.31 Tg yr(-1) in 2006, with an average annual increase of 1.04%. Over the study period, while emissions from field burning of crop residues remained rather low, those from rice cultivation and from livestock typically decreased and increased, respectively, showing extremely opposite trends that chiefly resulted from changes in the cultivated areas for different rice seasons and changes in the populations of different animal species. Over the study period, China's high-MEA regions shifted generally northward, chiefly as a result of reduced emissions from rice cultivation in most of China's southern provinces and a substantial growth in emissions from livestock enteric fermentation in most of China's northern, northeastern, and northwestern provinces. While this article provides significant information on estimates of MEA in China, it also includes some uncertainties in terms of estimating emissions from each source category. We conclude that China's MEA will likely continue to increase in the future and recommend a demonstration study on MEA mitigation along the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. We further recommend enhanced data monitoring and statistical analysis, which will be essential for preparation of the national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory.