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Predictors of an increased risk of future hypertension in Utah. A screening analysis
S C Hunt1, S H Stephenson, P N Hopkins
1Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, Utah.
Insights
Age, baseline blood pressure, family history, height, BMI, and adiposity predict hypertension risk. Certain blood markers like uric acid and phosphate also showed associations. Ion transport was not linked to increased hypertension incidence.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Epidemiology
- Genetics and Hypertension
Background:
- Hypertension is a major public health concern with complex etiology.
- Identifying predictive risk factors is crucial for early intervention and prevention strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate variables associated with increased risk of hypertension incidence in a large Utah pedigree cohort.
- To identify key predictors of future hypertension development.
Main Methods:
- Prospective study of 1,482 adults from 98 Utah pedigrees over an average of 7 years.
- Collected baseline data on anthropometrics, clinical chemistry, socioeconomic, lifestyle, and erythrocyte ion measurements.
- Utilized logistic regression analysis to determine associations with hypertension incidence.
Main Results:
- Strongest predictors of hypertension incidence were age and baseline systolic/diastolic blood pressures.
- Adjusted for age and sex, family history, height, body mass index, abdominal girth, skinfold thicknesses, percent ideal body weight, triglyceride, uric acid, and inorganic phosphate were associated with increased risk.
- Final predictive model included age, systolic blood pressure, subscapular skinfold thickness, height, uric acid, inorganic phosphate, and family history of hypertension.
Conclusions:
- Age, baseline blood pressure, and several anthropometric and clinical factors are significant predictors of hypertension incidence.
- Erythrocyte ion transport and concentration measurements were not associated with hypertension risk in this cohort.
Abstract:
A prospective study on 1,482 adult members of 98 Utah pedigrees was carried out to determine which variables may be associated with an increased risk of hypertension incidence. After an average of 7 years of follow-up, 40 individuals had been placed on antihypertensive medications to lower blood pressure. Baseline study variables included anthropometrics, clinical chemistry measurements of blood and urine, socioeconomic and lifestyle variables, and detailed erythrocyte ion transport and concentration measurements. Age (relative risk of 4.28 for a 2 SD difference, p less than 0.0001) and baseline systolic and diastolic blood pressures (relative risks of 3.55 and 3.52, respectively, both p less than 0.0001) had the strongest associations with hypertension incidence. Controlling for age and baseline blood pressure, the following age- and sex-adjusted variables were associated with an increased risk of future hypertension (relative risks for a 2 SD difference, all p less than 0.10): family history of hypertension (2.35); height (1.97); body mass index (2.31); abdominal girth (2.66); subscapular, suprailiac, and triceps skinfold thicknesses (2.79, 2.52, and 2.28, respectively); percent ideal body weight (2.63); log triglyceride concentration (2.02); plasma uric acid (2.16); inorganic phosphate (0.50); and passive erythrocyte sodium permeability (1.59). The final model,which included all of the age- and sex-adjusted variables (p less than 0.10) in a backward elimination logistic regression analysis, consisted of age (4.78), systolic blood pressure (2.91), subscapular skinfold thickness (2.21), height (1.92), uric acid (2.06), inorganic phosphate (0.50), and family history of hypertension (1.82). None of the ion transport or concentration measurements ws associated with an increased risk of hypertension.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)