Early death from clinical stage I melanoma

We studied 13 prognostic factors in 582 patients with clinical stage I melanoma to determine which factor or combination of factors was associated with death from melanoma within the first 24 months following diagnosis. Thirty-six patients died during this period. Only 2 deaths occurred in patients with primary tumors thinner than 1.70 mm, and only 2 patients of 189 died with tumors located on the non-BANS extremities, excluding the hands and feet. Individual factors associated with high risk for death within 2 years included level V tumors, acral location, thickness greater than or equal to 3.65 mm, histologic ulceration greater than 3 mm, nodular type, presence of microscopic satellites, greater than 6 mitoses/mm(2), positive elective node dissection, absence of lymphocyte response at the tumor base, and absence of an associated nevus histologically. Many of the preceding individual factors are highly correlated. By the use of logistic regression analysis, only one very high risk group was found: 71 percent of patients with level V tumors greater than 1.70 mm thick with histologic ulceration width greater than 3 mm located in an area other than the extremities (excluding hands and feet) had died within 2 years of diagnosis. The ability to select high-risk groups should be useful to investigators involved with the design and evaluation of adjuvant therapy studies.