Feelings not forgone: underestimating affective reactions to what does not happen

In two experiments, we observed that when given the choice of gambling or not gambling, people who chose not to gamble underestimated the intensity of their affective reactions to the forgone gamble's outcome. Those who would have been winners felt more displeasure than anticipated, and those who would have been losers felt more pleasure than anticipated. We suggest that this underestimation stems partly from people's belief that affective experience is relatively uninfluenced by events they chose not to experience. Consistent with this suggestion, participants' affective forecasts were not influenced by whether the participants or a computer made the choice not to gamble-as though participants did not feel personally responsible for the forgone outcome, whether chosen by themselves or by a computer. In contrast to their affective forecasts, however, participants' affective reactions to forgone outcomes were less intense when the computer chose not to gamble than when the participants themselves made the choice not to gamble. Participants therefore proved to be more accurate in predicting their affective reactions to the results of the computer's decision not to gamble than in predicting their affective reactions to the results of their own decision not to gamble. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.