Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 5, 2026
08:14
An In Vitro Model for Measuring Immune Responses to Malaria in the Context of HIV Co-infection
Published on: October 6, 2015
Climate change and the global malaria recession
Peter W Gething1, David L Smith, Anand P Patil
1Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK. peter.gething@zoo.ox.ac.uk
Nature
|May 21, 2010
Summary
Global malaria range and endemicity have significantly decreased over the past century, contrary to claims of climate change-driven increases. Effective control measures offer greater impact than projected climate effects on malaria.
Area of Science:
- Global epidemiology
- Climate change impact on infectious diseases
- Public health policy
Background:
- Climate change is proposed to increase malaria spread and mortality.
- Historical maps show changes in Plasmodium falciparum malaria distribution.
- Understanding malaria epidemiology is crucial for global health policy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the contraction of malaria's geographic range since 1900.
- To measure global decreases in malaria endemicity over the last century.
- To compare historical changes with projected climate change impacts and control measure effectiveness.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of historical and contemporary malaria distribution maps.
- Quantification of changes in malaria endemicity since approximately 1900.
- Comparison of observed trends with predicted climate change effects and public health intervention impacts.
Main Results:
- Global malaria range and endemicity have substantially decreased since 1900.
- Observed decreases contradict claims of rising temperatures increasing global malaria.
- Projected climate change impacts are orders of magnitude smaller than historical declines and achievable control measure effects.
Conclusions:
- Claims of climate change increasing current malaria burden are largely unsupported by observed global trends.
- Effective public health interventions significantly outweigh projected climate change impacts on malaria.
- Future malaria predictions must consider historical context and the potent impact of control measures.
Related Concept Videos
01:16What is Climate?
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
01:50Global Climate Change
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
01:50Threats to Biodiversity
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
01:27Diversity of Protists II
Alveolates are a group of organisms recognized by the presence of alveoli, which are cytoplasmic sacs located beneath the cell membrane. While their function remains uncertain, alveoli may help regulate water balance by controlling how much water enters and leaves the cell. In dinoflagellates, these structures may serve as armor plates. There are three major types of alveolates: ciliates, which move using cilia; dinoflagellates, which use flagella for movement; and apicomplexans, which are...
01:27Microbes and Climate Change
Microorganisms are pivotal agents in Earth's biogeochemical cycles, significantly influencing climate dynamics through their metabolic activities. These microbes modulate the levels of key greenhouse gases by both contributing to and helping mitigate climate change.Microbial Contributions to Greenhouse Gas EmissionsRising global temperatures accelerate microbial metabolism, which, in turn, speeds up the decomposition of organic matter. This process releases carbon dioxide (CO₂) through...
01:29Malaria
Malaria pathogenesis in humans reflects a delicate interplay between parasite biology and host response. Clinical illness reflects a host’s immune response to the parasite’s asexual replication cycle, which is often asymptomatic in individuals with partial immunity. From the parasite's perspective, transmission between mosquito and human with minimal host pathology is evolutionarily advantageous. Among the six Plasmodium species infecting humans, P. falciparum and P. vivax dominate in global...