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Published on: July 11, 2025
Phylogenomics with incomplete taxon coverage: the limits to inference
Michael J Sanderson1, Michelle M McMahon, Mike Steel
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA. sanderm@email.arizona.edu
Missing data in phylogenomics can hinder tree resolution. This study introduces "decisiveness" as a criterion to assess if data patterns uniquely define a single phylogenetic tree, offering insights into data requirements for robust evolutionary inference.
Area of Science:
- Evolutionary Biology
- Genomics
- Bioinformatics
Background:
- Phylogenomic studies often suffer from missing data across loci and taxa.
- Distinguishing missing data effects from tree reconstruction errors is challenging.
- Decisiveness, a new criterion, assesses if taxon coverage uniquely defines a single phylogenetic tree.
Purpose of the Study:
- To theoretically bound the impact of missing data on phylogenomic decisiveness.
- To evaluate decisiveness for both fixed and randomly generated taxon coverage patterns.
- To estimate decisiveness probability and edge distinguishability when trees are not fully resolved.
Main Methods:
- Establish theoretical bounds for missing data's impact on decisiveness.
- Analyze fixed taxon coverage patterns and random data sampling processes.
- Illustrate theoretical findings with empirical examples from sequence databases and genomic libraries.
Main Results:
- Derived lower bounds on loci needed for decisiveness in fixed coverage patterns.
- Established lower and upper bounds for decisiveness in random data sampling.
- Quantified the probability of decisiveness and edge distinguishability for unresolved trees.
Conclusions:
- Partial taxon coverage can limit phylogenomic inference by preventing unique tree resolution.
- Despite typical sparseness in data sets, a significant portion of tree edges remain distinguishable.
- Decisiveness provides a framework for evaluating data quality in phylogenomic analyses.
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