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Identification of causal effects on binary outcomes using structural mean models.

Paul S Clarke1, Frank Windmeijer

  • 1Centre for Market & Public Organisation, University of Bristol, 1TX, UK. paul.clarke@bristol.ac.uk

Biostatistics (Oxford, England)
|June 5, 2010
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Structural mean models (SMMs) estimate causal effects in trials with noncompliance. Additive and multiplicative SMMs identify local causal effects under monotonicity, but interpretation requires careful consideration of underlying assumptions.

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Area of Science:

  • Biostatistics
  • Epidemiology
  • Causal Inference

Background:

  • Structural Mean Models (SMMs) were developed for causal effect estimation in randomized trials with nonignorable treatment noncompliance.
  • Existing literature confirms SMMs can identify causal effects in placebo-controlled trials under weak assumptions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the application of SMMs in broader study types beyond randomized controlled trials.
  • To critically examine the 'no effect modification' assumption crucial for SMM identification in new contexts.
  • To clarify the interpretation of SMM inferences, particularly regarding different SMM estimators.

Main Methods:

  • The study analyzes the assumptions underlying SMM identification in non-randomized or complex settings.
  • It investigates the impact of treatment selection assumptions, specifically monotonicity.
  • An application and simulation study are used to demonstrate and verify findings.

Main Results:

  • The 'no effect modification' assumption for SMMs is shown to be highly dependent on the unknown data-generating causal model, making it difficult to justify.
  • Additive and multiplicative SMMs are confirmed to identify local (complier) causal effects when treatment selection is monotonic.
  • The double-logistic SMM estimator does not identify local causal effects without additional assumptions.

Conclusions:

  • The justification of SMM assumptions requires careful consideration of the specific causal model.
  • While certain SMM variants can estimate complier causal effects under monotonicity, their interpretation is nuanced.
  • The study provides clarity on the proper interpretation of SMM inferences through practical examples and simulations.