[Ambulatory surgery in Spain: a Delphi prediction]

To investigate the consensus among one group of experts regarding the substitution percentage which is possible to obtain with the surgical procedures that are capable of being made by day surgery.

A Delphi method was designed to know the opinions of some experts selected from different specialities (Anaesthesia, General surgery, Ophthalmology, Orthopaedic surgery and Gynecology) and according with the criteria of their speciality. A questionnaire was designed with 45 procedures which could be performed through day surgery, and 2 rounds of answers were required.

Opinion results got percentages for 45 different surgical procedures. Variability was high, except in Gynecology and other pathologies as adenopathies, correction of hammer toe, olecranon bursa excision, or carpal tunnel descompression. The common trend among experts was not very high, it was depending on specialities. In Gynecology (ANOVA F 4.2 p = 0.001), General surgery (ANOVA F 4.9 p = 0.001). In Ophthalmology any change of opinion was almost detected.

The substitution percentages observed are high in the major part of procedures. A notable variability exists between experts when defining the substitution percentage. The consensus rate obtained with the Delphi method has not been high.