The cost of future problem drug use associated with young people's behaviors and circumstances

The UK Drug Strategy includes the objective of preventing young people from becoming drug misusers. It is the use of heroin, crack and heavy use of cocaine that accounts for most of the costs associated with drug use. However, research on the efficiency of young people's interventions at reducing such problem drug use is limited by the expense associated with long-term evaluations. An alternative to undertaking expensive long-term research is to model the probable longer-term problem drug use associated with young people's behavior and circumstances. This paper estimates the economic cost of future problem drug use associated with young people's behavior and circumstances, such as their cannabis, cigarette and alcohol use, delinquency and the drug use of their parents and peers.