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Published on: December 2, 2016
[The number of cardiovascular surgeons is decreasing in Nagano]
Tamaki Takano1, Megumi Fuke, Kouhei Takahashi
1Department of Surgery (II), Shinshu University School of Medicine.
Insights
The number of cardiovascular surgeons in Nagano has declined significantly since 2004, with increased retirements and fewer new surgeons. This trend impacts surgical case volume and institute consolidation efforts.
Area of Science:
- Medical research
- Surgical workforce analysis
- Public health policy
Background:
- A notable shortage of medical doctors has been observed since the 2004 residency program changes.
- This study focuses on the cardiovascular surgery workforce in Nagano prefecture.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate trends in the number of cardiovascular surgeons, surgical cases, and institutes in Nagano from 1996 to 2008.
- To analyze the factors contributing to the decline in cardiovascular surgeons.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of cardiovascular surgeon numbers, new joiners, and retirements from 1996 to 2008.
- Kaplan-Meier analysis to assess surgeon career longevity.
- Examination of surgical case volume and institute consolidation.
Main Results:
- Cardiovascular surgeon numbers decreased from 28 to 19 between 1996 and 2008.
- New surgeon recruitment slowed significantly after 2001, while retirement rates increased.
- Surgical case volume nearly doubled from 340 in 1996 to 771 in 2008.
- Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated high early retirement rates, with 50% retiring within 19 years.
Conclusions:
- The decline in cardiovascular surgeons poses challenges for surgical capacity.
- Consolidation of surgical institutes is underway to manage the reduced workforce.
- Improving working conditions and creating new roles for senior surgeons are crucial to retain talent and prevent early departures.
Abstract:
Shortage of medical doctors has been conspicuous since the residency program has been changed in 2004. We investigated the changes in the number of cardiovascular surgeons, surgical cases and institutes of Nagano from 1996 to 2008. The number of cardiovascular surgeons decreased from 28 to 19. The number of newly joined cardiovascular surgeons were 2.7 +/- 1.4/year from 1996 to 2001 and 1.1 +/- 0.4/year from 2002 to 2008. The number of retirement were 0.7 +/- 0.8/year and 2.3 +/- 1.0/year from 1996 to 2001 and from 2002 to 2008, respectively. The number of surgery cases increased from 340 in 1996 to 771 in 2008. Kaplan-Mayer analysis showed the 50% of cardiovascular surgeons retired in 19 years of their career, and the only 20% of surgeons survived after 29 years. The number of newly joined general surgeons was the only 3 since 2004. We are consolidating the institutes of cardiovascular surgery in Nagano to perform more surgery by fewer surgeons. It is important that working condition of cardiovascular surgeon adapt to young doctor's favor, and new positions should be created for elder cardiovascular surgeons to prevent early retirement.
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