Assessing monthly average solar radiation models: a comparative case study in Turkey

Area of Science:

• Renewable Energy
• Atmospheric Science
• Building Science

Background:

• Accurate solar radiation data is crucial for solar energy applications, building design, agriculture, and hydrology.
• Numerous empirical models exist globally to predict solar radiation, necessitating comparative analysis for specific locations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate and compare 147 empirical solar radiation models for predicting monthly solar radiation in Ankara, Turkey.
• To identify the most accurate models for solar energy assessment and related applications in the region.

Main Methods:

• A comprehensive literature review identified 147 solar radiation models.
• Statistical measures including percentage error, mean percentage error, root mean square error, mean bias error, and correlation coefficient were used for comparison.
• Model performance was assessed for predicting solar radiation on a horizontal surface.

Main Results:

• The study identified the top-performing models for solar radiation prediction in Ankara.
• The Ball et al. (2004) and Chen et al. (2006) models demonstrated superior accuracy in estimating monthly solar radiation on horizontal surfaces.
• Performance varied significantly among the 147 evaluated models.

Conclusions:

• The Ball et al. and Chen et al. models are recommended for accurate solar radiation prediction in Ankara.
• The findings provide valuable guidance for engineers, architects, and researchers utilizing solar data in the region.
• Further validation of selected models under diverse climatic conditions may be beneficial.