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Published on: August 14, 2018
Evaluating nested clade phylogeographic analysis under models of restricted gene flow
Mahesh Panchal1, Mark A Beaumont
1School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Whiteknights, PO Box 228, Reading RG6 6AJ, UK. panchal@evolbio.mpg.de
Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) often produces misleading results, with high false-positive rates in population genetics studies. Multilocus NCPA reduces errors but doesn't improve accuracy, suggesting the method needs rigorous simulation-based testing.
Area of Science:
- Population genetics
- Phylogeography
- Computational biology
Background:
- Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) is a common method for inferring demographic history.
- Previous studies indicated NCPA's susceptibility to false positives, particularly under random mating.
- This study investigates NCPA's reliability under restricted gene flow scenarios.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the performance of single-locus and multilocus NCPA under various models of restricted gene flow.
- To assess the accuracy and false-positive rates of NCPA in spatially structured populations.
- To introduce and test a new program, ANeCA-ML, for multilocus NCPA.
Main Methods:
- Simulated population genetic data under three gene flow models: stepping stone, island, and stepping stone with long-distance dispersal.
- Implemented multilocus NCPA using the ANeCA-ML program.
- Compared results from single-locus and multilocus NCPA with standard population genetics tests (AMOVA, Fu's Fs, Mantel test).
Main Results:
- Single-locus NCPA exhibited high false-positive rates across all tested models, exceeding 76% and reaching over 99% in the island model.
- Multilocus NCPA reduced false positives compared to single-locus analysis but remained high in certain scenarios (e.g., 54% for the island model).
- While multilocus NCPA decreased sensitivity, it did not enhance the overall accuracy of inferences.
Conclusions:
- The NCPA method, in its current form, is unreliable for inferring demographic history under restricted gene flow.
- Inferences drawn from NCPA can be misleading, necessitating caution in its application.
- Researchers should conduct objective, simulation-based testing before employing NCPA in their studies.
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