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Phenotypic plasticity and population viability: the importance of environmental predictability
Thomas E Reed1, Robin S Waples, Daniel E Schindler
1School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USA. tomreed@u.washington.edu
Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|June 18, 2010
Summary
Phenotypic plasticity can buffer populations from environmental changes when cues are reliable. However, strong plasticity can increase extinction risk in unpredictable environments, threatening population persistence.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Population Dynamics
Background:
- Phenotypic plasticity is crucial for how environmental variation affects populations.
- Understanding the interplay between plasticity and environmental variability on population dynamics is limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how phenotypic plasticity interacts with environmental stochasticity and cue reliability.
- To assess the impact of plasticity on population fitness and dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Developed a stochastic individual-based model.
- Simulated phenotypes responding to environmental cues with fitness dependent on phenotype-optimum matching.
- Varied levels of environmental stochasticity and cue reliability.
Main Results:
- High cue-optimum correlation with plasticity buffered fitness and stabilized population size.
- Weak correlation and high environmental variability reduced population size with strong plasticity.
- High plasticity increased extinction probability under high environmental variability.
Conclusions:
- Plasticity can be detrimental to population persistence in unpredictable environments.
- Evolved reaction norms may not be adaptive in novel or changing environments.
- Demographic models should incorporate phenotypic plasticity for accurate environmental change predictions.
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