Decision analysis in plastic surgery: a primer

Decision analysis modeling can help plastic surgeons systematically evaluate competing strategies in complex clinical decisions. The aim of this article is to introduce the decision analysis technique and discuss its essential components in an effort to apply the best available evidence for modeling treatment decisions. The following components of the decision analysis technique are discussed in detail: (1) the clinical question is designed, (2) a model is created to incorporate possible treatment strategies and relevant outcomes, (3) probabilities and outcome values are assigned to the model, (4) the model is analyzed and the best strategy is identified, and (5) sensitivity analysis is performed to test the robustness of the model. In the era of evidence-based medicine, decision analysis is an important tool for plastic surgeons to become familiar with.